News Post Poll: Tim Kaine opens first lead over George Allen in Va. Senate race
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Wednesday, 19 September 2012 19:03

Post Poll: Tim Kaine opens first lead over George Allen in Va. Senate race

Written by  Post Poll | The Washington Post
Former Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, left, and former Sen. George Allen participate in a July debate. Former Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, left, and former Sen. George Allen participate in a July debate. Steve Helber/AP

Timothy M. Kaine has jumped ahead of George Allen for the first time in their U.S. Senate race, according to a new Washington Post poll in Virginia, changing the complexion of a nationally watched contest that could help determine which party controls the chamber.

Kaine (D) leads fellow former governor Allen (R) among likely voters by 51 percent to 43 percent in the poll, and Kaine is ahead among all registered voters by an identical margin in the hard-fought contest to succeed retiring Sen. James Webb (D).

The survey’s results mark a significant shift: The past two Post polls about the race, taken in May 2011 and May 2012, showed the contest tied among registered voters, and several more recent polls have shown a deadlock.

A Quinnipiac-CBS News-New York Times poll released Wednesday also has Kaine in the lead.

With seven weeks until Election Day, Kaine appears to have a clear edge, helped by a growing lead among women and a significant uptick of support among seniors and residents of the area surrounding Richmond, where he served as mayor. And though Kaine previously lagged behind President Obama, his support now tracks closely with the top of the ticket: Obama leads his Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Virginia in the Post poll by the same 8 percentage-point spread among likely voters.

Virginia is one of the most tightly contested races in the nation and key to Democrats’ hopes of keeping control of the chamber. For Republicans, an Allen loss would make their path to a majority much more complicated. No other state features such a high-powered matchup — this is Allen’s fourth statewide campaign and Kaine’s third.

The results come as the race enters a decisive phase. Kaine and Allen are set to debate Thursday in McLean, with two more face-offs scheduled in October. Both candidates have multimillion-dollar ad campaigns on the air — Kaine unveiled two new spots Wednesday portraying him as a bipartisan deal-maker — and outside money is pouring into Virginia at a rapid rate.

Although Kaine’s campaign has consistently outraised Allen’s, outside conservative groups such as Crossroads GPS have pumped millions of dollars into negative ads against the Democrat. Yet voters’ opinions of Kaine have improved significantly since the previous Post poll.

Fifty-four percent of registered voters now have a favorable impression of Kaine, while 34 percent view him unfavorably. In May, Kaine’s score was 41 percent to 41 percent. Allen has a 51 percent to 35 percent margin, similar to the 47 percent to 31 percent ratio he recorded in May. For both men, the percentage of voters expressing no opinion is dwindling quickly.

In Northern Virginia, Kaine has a 13-point lead among registered voters and a 22-point lead in the close-in District suburbs. Allen has a 14-point advantage in central and western Virginia.

But Kaine also leads in the Tidewater region, which includes the Hampton Roads, and has opened up a 17-point edge in the area that includes Richmond and points east of the city. He trailed there by double digits in May.

 

Susan Gigiovanni of Midlothian, 54, also fondly remembered Kaine’s mayoral days.

“I find him to be a very honest and trustworthy person,” she said. “I believe he is somebody that would fight for Virginia. George Allen, I think, is more for big business and less representative of what I would like to see happen for the country.”

Kaine enjoys a growing advantage among women, who now prefer him by 14 points after doing so by 7 points in May. That trend comes despite the fact that Allen spent several weeks this summer airing television ads aimed at improving his standing among women. Kaine has battled to a tie among men, a group that tilted in Allen’s direction in the previous two polls.

Seniors also appear to be gravitating toward Kaine. The two men are essentially tied among voters 65 and older, whereas Allen led by 2 to 1 in May. Democrats have sought to tie Allen to the Medicare reform proposals advanced by Rep. Paul Ryan (Wis.), the Republican vice presidential nominee.

The Post poll asked Virginians whether they preferred to have Medicare continue as a government-run program or as one in which the government gives seniors a fixed amount of money to buy private insurance or Medicare — similar to Ryan’s recent plan. Fifty-six percent of registered voters said they wanted to keep the program the same, while 35 percent endorsed the reform proposal.

Gigiovanni, a doctor and assistant dean of medical education at Virginia Commonwealth University, said the fight over the federal health-care law also weighed into her decision.

“I believe that although Obamacare is not perfect, it certainly goes much further than any other president has gone to try to guarantee health care for our citizens,” she said. “I feel like Allen would be with the Republican camp in repealing that and going backwards.”

Few Virginians called health care the most important issue in the Senate race. Thirty-nine percent of voters cited the economy or jobs as paramount, and no other single topic exceeded 5 percent.

Virginia voters are more unsettled in their choice for senator than they are for president. About 28 percent of registered voters are undecided or are open to switching their selection, compared with the 18 percent who are up for grabs in the presidential contest. Persuadable voters divide about evenly between Allen and Kaine in the poll, but few have strong impressions of either candidate, leaving plenty of room for debates and nonstop TV ads to fill the gaps.

Doug Lathrop of Arlington County, 41, a lobbyist for a life insurance company and a Republican, is one of many who have not made up their minds in the Senate race.

“I’m pretty sure I would vote for George Allen, but I wouldn’t say categorically I’m leaving out the chance I’d vote for Tim Kaine,” Lathrop said.

The fact that both men served as governor, Lathrop added, “causes me to leave the door open. I don’t think the state of Virginia did terribly bad under Governor Kaine, so that’s why I’d give him a look. I think they’re both competent public officials. I don’t think either one has separated himself with the argument that they’d be a better public servant than the other guy.”

Beth B. Lipphardt, a disabled Suffolk resident, said she would vote for Allen as “the lesser of two evils.”

“I have likes and dislikes of both of them,” Lipphardt said, explaining that although Kaine “was a very good governor,” she disliked that he chose to serve as Democratic National Committee chairman.

Republicans have sought to use Kaine’s DNC service to tie him to Obama’s more controversial policies. Equal shares of respondents cited Kaine’s work for the DNC as a reason to support or oppose the Democrat.

The poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 12-16 among a random sample of 1,104 Virginia adults, including 934 registered voters and 847 likely voters. Interviews were conducted on conventional and cellular telephones, and carried out in English and Spanish. The margin of error for registered and likely voter samples is plus or minus four percentage points.

Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill, Errin Haines and Laura Vozzella contributed to this report.

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